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Technology on trial: why Toyota and Tesla are at loggerheads

Image of Faye Sunderland
Author: | Updated: 21 Jan 2014 10:20

January 21, 2014. The Green Piece Column.

Is today a golden age of innovation or an age of trial and error, tests and tribulation for the car industry? That is the question we pause to ask ourselves this week. There is much to be said for the old adage that necessity is the mother of invention, so will we get loads of great, new tech or watch a massive car industry scrap, as the big players compete for supremacy in the coming years?

The car industry faces many challenges over the coming decades as society tries to meet the challenges presented by growing vehicle demand from developing countries, worsening city congestion around the word, the need for cleaner alternatives and an increasingly urbanised consumer base, just to start with.

New research from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) suggests that these challenges are what’s driving an increasing number of patent filings as firms develop more fuel efficient technologies, assisted driving technologies, lightweight construction techniques and connectivity technology to meet our future needs.

Uncertain times

But as we saw last week, not even the industry experts themselves can see clearly ahead, as Toyota indulges in a war of words with rivals who think that battery electric vehicles make more sense than the fuel cell technology it is focussing its efforts on.

All of this is because, truthfully, nobody knows how things will pan out, even with the right investment and passionate advocacy of the carmakers themselves, they are still dependent on the support of governments around the world, both in terms of consumer grants and investment in infrastructure and in terms of environmental legislation; and ultimately at the mercy of the consumer who will pick the tech winners in the end.

Toyota FCV in Las Vegas

This means there has to be a lot of chest beating and drum banging as the likes of Tesla, Toyota, Nissan and Volkswagen compete for your support and confidence in their environmental leadership.

Innovation will be one of the benefits that this uncertain future will drive, but the days when carmakers could be sure you’d opt for a straightforward diesel or petrol car are gone.

BCG’s 2013 survey discovered that fourteen of the top 50 innovative companies last year were carmakers, compared to 10 in 2012 and only five in 2005, showing how the industry is making an upward trend in innovation. Three carmakers—Toyota, Ford and BMW—even make it into the top ten.Toyota hybrids 6 million milestone

Toyota’s innovative approach to alternative fuel has already seen it benefit. As the undisputed king of the hybrid, the carmaker recently celebrated hitting the six million hybrid sales mark.

This success, its senior vice president of automotive operations in the US, Bob Carter, says it can repeat with the FCV fuel cell model, which is based on its Prius hybrid.

Still, there is a lot of weight already thrown behind battery electric vehicles, with rivals including Renault-Nissan, Tesla and BMW already in position to benefit from rising interest.

Flawed technology?

Of course, it isn’t just the head-start that puts battery models at an advantage. There is the lack of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, (although not recommended, BEV owners can always trickle-charge from a regular 13A domestic socket, whereas hydrogen supplies aren’t readily available at home yet).

Tesla Model S 2014 glare

Then there is the question of efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell tech and whether BEVs are already catching up on the apparent disadvantages they have over FCEVs, such as shorter driving ranges and longer ‘refuelling’ times. Tesla is proof of this happening already, with its Model S boasting up to 300 miles driving range, a recharging time of around 20 minutes with one of its Superchargers, and the potential for battery swapping; to make it as quick to ‘refuel’ as filling up with diesel, petrol or hydrogen.

On the efficiency front for hydrogen cars though, Toyota has made impressive progress. It claims its third generation fuel cell model now has a power output density twice that of the system previously used in the FCHV-adv concept at 3kW/litre.

Plus cost issues are also been tackled, with the entire hydrogen system costing one-tenth of that used in the old concept. Before launch, Toyota even aims to reduce this further by 50 per cent to deliver a model priced from under $100,000 (£62,000)—yes that’s a lot but well under the estimated £500,000 cost Honda to make its first FCX Clarity, and will reduce further as production builds.

But there are more issues with hydrogen; it is difficult to store and transport, production through reforming natural gas is scarcely what you could call ‘green’ and energy efficiency of hydrogen FCEVs is still less than the best BEVs.

Fast Pack Swap Event from Tesla Motors on Vimeo.

Still it is work in progress. All we’re saying is, if you are dismissive of BEVs because they are expensive to buy and difficult to find somewhere to refuel; then think again if you think hydrogen cars arrive in the next couple of years and change all that; because they won’t.

It’s often been claimed that the development of fuel cell cars is an expensive diversion to real efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and may never become mass-produced.

As Elon Musk put it in a recent interview with Autocar: “Manufacturers do it because they’re under pressure to show they’re doing something ‘constructive’ about sustainability. They feel it’s better to be working on a solution a generation away rather than something just around the corner.”

If that’s true, then innovation is a cynical business.

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